Rubber: Typhoon Disturbance And New Rubber Raw Material Supply Shortage Boost Rubber Prices

Since the rubber warehouse was transferred to the new month in August, the rubber price has continued to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level. Since September 6, the rubber price has risen sharply, breaking through the 17,000 mark in one fell swoop. On the first trading day after the Mid-Autumn Festival, rubber jumped high and once reached a high of 17,880 yuan/ton. As of the closing of the afternoon today, the main closing price of rubber was 17,715 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.9%. The cumulative increase in this round was 10.2%, which was basically the same as the previous high in September 2017.
The high and firm rubber price is related to the recent positive supply and demand pattern. The start time of this round of new highs was the day before the typhoon "Makar" passed through the southern coastal areas. Therefore, it can be judged that the main reason for this surge was extreme weather disturbance. The passage of this typhoon has had a certain adverse impact on the main overseas rubber-producing areas and the main domestic-producing areas of Hainan and Yunnan. The strong typhoon caused damage to rubber trees, bananas and other crop plants. At the same time, continuous heavy rainfall seriously affected rubber tapping, the output of new rubber decreased, and the supply of glue raw materials was insufficient. Since last week, the price of raw glue in Hainan and Yunnan has increased, and the theoretical production profit of Hainan concentrated milk has expanded. At the same time, due to the obstruction of transportation caused by the strong typhoon, the entry of foreign rubber into the port has also been affected. During the holiday, the foreign rubber market rose sharply. The resonance of the domestic market is also one of the reasons for the sharp rise in rubber prices today.
On the whole, the main production areas at home and abroad have been disturbed by weather factors recently, and the output of new rubber has been greatly reduced. Due to the impact of transportation, the arrival of goods at foreign ports has been unsmooth. It is expected that the destocking of rubber will continue in the near future. The price of raw glue in Yunnan and Hainan has risen, and the profit of latex has expanded. Entering the peak season of September, the overall demand of downstream tire factories has improved, and the production of semi-steel tires and full-steel tires is relatively active. It is expected that there will still be expectations for raw material replenishment. Therefore, the overall supply and demand pattern of rubber has improved recently, supporting the upward attack of rubber prices.